Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Sir Keir Starmer is seeking to act as “a bridge” between Washington and Europe against a backdrop of deepening transatlantic tensions over Ukraine, defence, trade and free speech.
The UK’s prime minister will attend a summit hosted by France’s President Emmanuel Macron on Monday to discuss Europe’s role in ending the war in Ukraine, amid signs US President Donald Trump is sidelining the continent.
Starmer’s allies say Britain could put boots on the ground in Ukraine as part of a European effort to secure the peace. The Paris meeting is expected to discuss a possible deployment of a “reassurance force” with troops stationed behind, but not on, a future ceasefire line.
Starmer is then expected to travel to Washington in the last week of February in an attempt to persuade Trump to fully involve European nations in Ukraine talks and to try to head off US tariffs.
The prime minister said this was “a once in a generation moment for our national security when we engage with the reality of the world today and the threat we face from Russia”.
He added: “The UK will work to ensure we keep the US and Europe together. We cannot allow any divisions in the alliance to distract from the enemies we face.”
Downing Street said it expected there to be another meeting of European leaders, including Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after Starmer returned from his talks with Trump.
Britain — like other European countries — is under fierce pressure from Trump to increase defence spending against a backdrop of sluggish growth and strained public services.
Starmer has committed to setting out “a pathway” to raise UK defence spending from 2.3 per cent of GDP to 2.5 per cent but has so far not said when that target would be met.
Starmer’s allies insisted that defence spending would not rise above the target of 2.5 per cent of GDP set out in Labour’s manifesto, creating growing tensions with defence chiefs who want more.
“There definitely won’t be an announcement before the Trump visit,” said one ally of the prime minister, referring to the timetable for reaching 2.5 per cent. “We have got to complete the strategic defence review first.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to hold spending at 2.3 per cent for as long as possible, as her fiscal plans come under severe strain. Starmer, who makes the final decision, is under pressure from the White House and defence chiefs to move to 2.5 per cent quickly.
Reeves’ fiscal rule requires the current budget to be in surplus by 2029, but her £9.9bn of “headroom” against that rule has already been blown away by gloomy economic forecasts. More spending cuts or tax rises are likely to be needed to plug the gap.
If Britain increased defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2029 — expected to be an election year — it would force Reeves to find an additional £5bn-£6bn at a time when other public services are already tightly squeezed.
Defence chiefs told Starmer on Friday that they needed 2.5 per cent of GDP to be spent now to avoid immediate cuts, according to people briefed on the discussions.
They then want to raise that level to 2.65 per cent — £10bn a year more than at present — a figure which has been rejected as unaffordable by both Starmer and Reeves.
The idea of a British “bridge” between Washington and Europe fell apart after Brexit, with US presidents often preferring to talk to Berlin or Paris along with EU leaders in Brussels.
But Starmer’s allies believe that Trump holds a positive view of Britain, which could be leveraged into political influence, even if the vice-president JD Vance last week criticised the UK’s approach to free speech.
Jonathan Reynolds, business and trade secretary, told the BBC on Sunday that Britain’s balanced trade relationship and light touch regulation of artificial intelligence could work to the UK’s advantage.
“There’s definitely a view towards Europe and a different view towards us in the UK,” Reynolds said. “We’ve got a chance to play a constructive role.” On trade, he said the US saw Britain “in a different light”.
Lord Peter Mandelson, UK ambassador to Washington, said recently that Britain should make a virtue of being “not Europe”. It remains to be seen whether this is wishful thinking on the part of Starmer, given Trump’s stated plan to levy tariffs across the board and Vance’s criticism of Britain last week.
Vance told the Munich Security Conference last week that “basic liberties of religious Britons, in particular” were under threat, criticising the prosecution of an anti-abortion protester.
Even if Starmer does persuade Trump to give Britain special treatment — for example on tariffs — that would complicate the prime minister’s parallel attempt to “reset” relations with the EU, including removing trade barriers.
Trump said on Friday that Starmer had requested a meeting in Washington and that the two leaders had “a lot of good things going on”. He said the meeting would take place “very soon”, adding: “I think he wants to come next week or the week after.”
Read the full article here
